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For a brief period, the former US president gave the impression to take a strong stance regarding Ukraine. After delivering statements of "serious ramifications" during the summer if Putin continued blocking ceasefire negotiations, the former president finally introduced considerable penalties on Russia's two largest petroleum corporations, Rosneft and Lukoil. This decision substantially affected the Russian leader's capability to support his aggression in Ukraine.

Yet, via his recently unveiled detailed peace initiative for Ukraine, which was developed by American and Russian officials without Ukraine's or European input, the former president has seemingly returned to his favorable to Russia approach.

Rewarding Invasion

This initiative would in practice favor Putin for occupying Ukraine while placing Ukraine's democratic system in danger. Although bold proclamations that "Ukraine's autonomy will be confirmed", large portions of the plan in reality weaken that essential sovereignty. This constitutes a Kremlin dream would certainly be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Showing his real-estate experience, Trump continues to consider the situation in Ukraine as a mere territorial dispute, as if giving Russia a section of Ukrainian territory will please the president. But, Putin's invasion is not simply about occupying a charred area of economically weakened land in the Donbas region. It is about Ukraine's democracy – and Putin's apparent intention to eliminate it so it ceases to serves as an attractive example for the Russian citizens of the responsible government that Putin's deepening autocracy withholds them.

Land Giveaways

While maintaining in status the presently separated Ukrainian provinces of these areas, Trump's plan would compel the nation to abandon the whole this eastern territory. Aside from favoring Russia with area that its forces have been unable to capture in exceeding a ten years of fighting, this concession would render Ukraine's defenses severely compromised.

Donetsk is the place of the nation's well-known "stronghold system", the fortified defensive positions that constitute a key barrier to Russian advances. The proposal would have Ukraine surrender these fortifications, giving Putin a unobstructed route to the capital if he eventually decide to restart the war.

Military Limitations

Additionally, in a step that would facilitate additional hostilities simpler for Russia, the plan would require Ukraine to diminish the size of its armed forces from their current 800,000 to 850,000 soldiers to a limit of this lower number. Notably, Trump's proposal places no such restrictions on Russia's military.

In what appears as a accommodation to Putin's campaign to characterize the nation's legitimate administration as extremists, the proposal states: "All radical belief system and practices must be opposed and prohibited." Apparently to emphasize this element, it demands that "Ukraine will hold democratic votes in three months" of a truce. At the same time, Trump imposes no requirement that Putin endanger his authoritarian rule by conducting elections in Russia.

Security Guarantees

Admittedly, the proposal includes the Russian Federation pledge not to "invade other states" and to "enshrine in regulation its policy of non-violence towards the EU and Ukraine". However considering that the Russian leadership has violated equivalent accords in the previous instances – such as the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which the Russian government promised to recognize the nation's sovereignty in return for relinquishing its historical nuclear arsenal, and the previous peace deals, in which Russia promised to a halt in fighting and a return of occupied territory in the Donbas to Ukrainian control – why should we believe Putin this time?

For this reason Ukraine has been so adamant on western security guarantees. Although the initiative threatens a "strong unified defense action" in case the Russian Federation resume its invasion, and includes that "The nation will receive reliable security guarantees", the specifics vary from unclear to troubling. The plan would not only deny Ukraine Nato membership but also preclude alliance nations from stationing military personnel on Ukraine's soil, effectively preventing the peacekeeping contingent, reportedly commanded by European powers, on which Ukraine had been relying to deter Russia from rebuilding his diminished military, re-equipping, and resuming aggression.

World Response

An additional parallel deal reportedly would grant Ukraine with a similar to NATO defense commitment, in which any later "serious, planned, and sustained armed attack" by the Russian Federation on the country "shall be regarded as an attack endangering the peace and security of the transatlantic community." That suggests a military response. Yet unlike a capable Ukraine's armed forces – the nation's primary protection against future invasion – the credibility of the supplementary deal would depend on the willingness of Western powers, including Trump, to act with force to Putin's aggression, an action they have {not